Numero di Riproduzione¶
Stime di Rt.
Max Pierini, Alessio Pamovio
Leggi qui per dettagli generali
Legenda:
- $R_t$ numero di riproduzione effettivo
- Rosso: maggiore di 1
- Verde: minore di 1
Rt con MCMC¶
Vedi Modello Predittivo per dettagli sul metodo di calcolo di $R_t$ con Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).
Italia¶
SOMMARIO¶
Rt bayesiano¶
Italia: $R_t$ (numero di riproduzione effettivo nel tempo $t$) stimato con metodo bayesiano (Bettencourt & Ribeiro 2008 e Kevin Systrom 2020).
Dettagli metodo: italian (PDF)
Rt come ODDS¶
Effective reproduction number $R_t$ can be considered as an ODD: if for example $R_t=2$, means like in gambling that the likelihood of contagion is "given 2 to 1", so an infected will infect 2 susceptible subjects.
For the effect of the serial interval $\tau$ (onset of symptoms, diagnosis, etc), new cases $k_t$ observed in day $t$ have been infected in $t-\tau$ by the current new cases observed in $t-\tau$ (because old cases are supposed to be hospitalized, isolated, recovered or dead) so, with this simple method, in $t$ we can calculate the $R_{t-\tau}$.
$$ R_{t-\tau} = \frac{k_{t}}{k_{t-\tau}} $$Work in progress: distribute serial interval $\tau$ as Gamma and new cases $k_t$ as Poisson.
© 2020 Max Pierini. Thanks to Sandra Mazzoli & Alessio Pamovio
Exported from Italia/stime_Rt.ipynb committed by maxdevblock on Fri Oct 16 20:40:43 2020 revision 65, f931c30